Institute
for Regional Studies of the CaliforniasInstitute
for Regional Studies of the CaliforniasThe population of the International Border Planning Area in 1997 was 363,385, with 27,918 in the San Diego portion and 335,467 in the Tijuana portion. The density of the population on the U.S. side is quite low at 1.13 persons per acre (2.79 per hectare), reflecting large areas of land protected from development and vacant land that is planned for future development. The Tijuana portion of the planning area, in contrast, has a population of 20.29 persons per acre (50.12 per hectare), reflecting high density residential areas and that most of the area is fully developed. Map 7 shows the population density and distribution in the two portions of the International Border Planning Area. On the U.S. side, population is clustered in the San Ysidro area and lightly distributed over Otay Mesa and the Tijuana River Valley with a small concentration in the parts of Imperial Beach adjacent to the Tijuana River National Estuarine Research Reserve that are included in the planning area.
The population of the International Border Planning Area is best understood within the regional context of the County of San Diego-Municipality of Tijuana. This region is one of the most demographically dynamic of the entire U.S.-Mexican border. Table 1 provides historical data and projections for population growth in the binational San Diego Country-Tijuana region.
Population in the binational region, particularly since 1940, has grown rapidly. Domestic and international migration have been important for the sustained growth rates of San Diego. Migration into San Diego has tended to be sensitive to changing economic conditions. For example, in 1995, at the end of the severe recession of the early 1990s, San Diego grew at an annual rate of only 0.9 percent. Two years later, in 1997, the economy had recovered and the annual population growth rate was 2.5 percent.
Tijuana's annual population growth rate continues to be well above 5 percent and natural increase will continue to play an important role in the city's growth. Migration will also continue to be significant as individuals and families from elsewhere in Mexico move to the border in search of jobs in the strong Tijuana economy or in the adjacent United States.
These regional population trends have several implications for the population of the International Border Planning Area. On the San Diego side, considerable vacant land available for the development of housing exists, as indicated on Map 3. The San Diego Association of Governments projects that some 29,909 housing units will be added in this area between 1995 and 2020, assuming the implementation of smart growth strategies. During the same period, the San Diego portion of the International Border Planning Area is expected to add another 119,181 persons for a total population of 149,689. Projections are not available for the Tijuana portion of the International Border Planning Area, but it is likely that existing residential areas will add to population density through the construction of apartments and accretion housing. In addition, residentially zoned vacant land on Mesa de Otay will be built out, also increasing the population of the area.
| Year | San Diego County | Tijuana Municipality | Total | % in San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1900 | 18,000 | 242 | 18,242 | 99 |
| 1930 | 210,000 | 11,000 | 221,000 | 95 |
| 1940 | 289,000 | 22,000 | 311,000 | 93 |
| 1950 | 557,000 | 65,000 | 622,000 | 90 |
| 1960 | 1,033,000 | 166,000 | 1,199,000 | 86 |
| 1970 | 1,358,000 | 341,000 | 1,699,000 | 80 |
| 1980 | 1,862,000 | 462,000 | 2,324,000 | 80 |
| 1990 | 2,498,000 | 747,000 | 3,245,000 | 77 |
| 2000 | 2,946,500 | 1,309,634 | 4,256,134 | 69 |
| 2010 | 3,437,700 | 2,255,833 | 5,693,533 | 60 |
| 2020 | 3,853,300 | 3,822,116 | 7,675,416 | 50 |
 Photo |
| As regional population increases, the number of border crossers will grow.. 2000. |
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