Institute for Regional Studies of the Californias

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Tijuana, Basic Information Page 3

Population

Population Growth in San Diego and Tijuana
Year San Diego County Tijuana Municipality
1930 209,659 11,000
1940 289,348 22,000
1950 556,808 65,000
1960 1,033,011 166,000
1970 1,367,200 341,000
1980 1,873,300 462,000
1990 2,520,500 747,381
1995 2,690,255 1,032,415
2000 2,896,900 1,125,200
2010 3,360,700 1,491,300
2020 3,791,400 1,946,300

The population of Tijuana, according to the 1990 census, was 747,381, or 45 percent of the state's population. Most analysts agree that this figure is too low, citing significant technical problems in the last two national censuses in Mexico and reported manipulation of the figures on the part of the federal government to reflect lower populations in the border states for political and fiscal reasons. Baja California's State Population Council (Consejo Estatal de Población--CONEPO) estimated that the 1990 population of Tijuana was 922,972, and for 1994 it was 1,079,747. These estimates are used by state and local agencies for planning purposes. Figures for Tijuana's current population are over 2 million that are frequently cited in the popular press and by marketing groups in the region are likely significantly overestimated.

Another complication factor for Tijuana's demographics is that the city has a large "floating" population of people recently arrived or in transit to the United States. This includes migrants from Central American countries and elsewhere on their way to the United States as undocumented
immigrants. The floating population also includes individuals who reside outside of the municipality and commute to work in Tijuana, it is estimated that 22.6 percent of Tijuana's population over five years of age falls into this category. The floating population may include 50,000 persons or more.

The annual population growth rate for the state of Baja California for the 1980-1990 period was 3.6 percent; that for Tijuana was 5.1 percent. Tijuana's annual population growth rate continued at the high rate of 6.75 percent for 1990-1995.

Average Annual Population Growth Rates, San Diego and Tijuana
Years San Diego County Tijuana Municipality
1940-50 6.90 11.40
1950-60 6.38 9.83
1960-70 2.84 7.46
1970-80 3.20 3.08
1980-90 3.01 4.92
1990-95 1.31 6.75

The population for the state and for Tijuana is quite young. For the state, 46.5 percent of the population is age 19 or less; 24.2 percent of Tijuana's population is 14 years or less. This young population provides great challenges to providing adequate educational opportunities and to creating enough jobs to employ new entrants in the job market.

Much of Tijuana's growth can be accounted for by migration from other areas of Mexico. 56 percent of Tijuana's population in 1990 was born elsewhere in Mexico (the figure for the state is 47.0). However, even if migration into Tijuana were to cease, the population would still grow due to the large number of women in Tijuana's population that will be having children in coming years.

Although educational levels have improved in Baja California, still only 55.1 percent of the state's
population has received post-primary schooling. The figure for Tijuana is 54.3 percent. Although the literacy rate of 95.6 percent for Tijuana is high, the mean years of schooling is only 6.6 years, which is above the national average of 4.7 years.

In 1990, in the state of Baja California, of the population 12 years and older, 49.4 percent were classified as economically active and for Tijuana the percentage was 50.9 percent. In Tijuana, 73.3 percent of the men and 28.7 percent of the women 12 years of age and older were economically active.


Energy

Electrical power for Tijuana is provided by a thermoelectric plant in Rosarito that uses fuel oil and a turbo gas plant in Tijuana. These have a combined output of 520 megawatts. Tijuana is linked to Mexicali where electrical energy is produced at the geothermal fields of Cerro Prieto. While connected to the electrical power grid of Southern California, Baja California is not connected to Mexico's power grid.

Demand for electrical energy is growing rapidly in Tijuana and elsewhere in Baja California, as is per capita use of electricity. In the near future it will be necessary to double the capacity of the Rosarito plant and to convert the facility to natural gas. The status of proposals to bring natural gas to Tijuana via a pipeline, to double the capacity of the Rosarito plant, and to convert the existing unit to natural gas is in doubt due to economic and financial problems in Mexico. Presently, bottled propane is provided to homes and businesses by a concessionaire and a small natural gas distribution system serves a limited are of the city.


Water

Tijuana is provided with a water supply of 4,520 liters per second by Rodríguez Dam, wells in the Tijuana and Alamar rivers, wells in La Misión, and the aqueduct from the Colorado River. Tijuana's meager water supply has led the state

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